Dog Day After High Noon - 11/05/06
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Well, the heat's about to be on. Perle and others have finally given up the ghost (of Glibness Past) on Bush's competence, and the Liberal Dems are about to have their day. And W sees himself as Gary Cooper, all alone versus world, national, Congressional, Republican and even neocon opinion.
The only consolation is that the Dems, contrary to so much leftist hope and Kristol-clear despair, have no chance at controlling the Senate. Why so many analysts are acting like there's a chance is ...mysterious. ...suspicious? ...hasty? ...stupid? Some seem to overlook that an open race taken by Dems doesn't mean a Magic-6 pick-up. None seem to be factoring in the canonical ballot-position edge - call it 1.5-2.2% this go-round - that so many candidates and ward heelers suppurate over. Between the two, the Dems, who have to take literally every Senate seat reasonably available to them, are more statistically challenged than Mark Twain.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/
http://www.pollingreport.com/2006.htm
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign06/countdown.html
What gets in the way of recognizing all this is most likely the power of standard deviation. (No, we don't mean conservatives' sexual hypocrisy - that Haggard, lusty-negro-in-the-woodpile faux pas always erecting its ugly, oft-uncircumcised head as a Foley catheterization of our incestuous Republican organs.) The mathematical power and failure rate of psephology are pretty well known; what's often underestimated is our inability to recognize when we're too reliant on it.
From a schooled statististical vantage point, we fully agree average 6% Democratic edges in generic ballot polls for Rep/Dem Senate races have very good reasons to translate to the six-seat Dem pick-up (out of fourteen contestable races) so many analysts think is just so possible. Essentially, that 6% average edge across polls eclipses the margin of error (a 95% confidence interval of two standard deviations) nicely and a normal distribution ought yield the six seats. But with 9 of them consensually being considered decided now (late Monday afternoon) and the Dems' only gaining Santorum's PA and DeWine's OH seats, they've already blown it. MN, WA, MI, AZ, NJ, and TN largely confirmed now, too, only five races remain toss-ups - and the Dems must take all to gain Senate control. Yeah, there's a 7- 8% chance, we figure, they might do that - giving each remaining Dem a toss-up edge of 60-40 odds from here (.6 to the fifth power). But the Rep edge in ballot position will dent that further. Odds of a turn-around upset in the other 30 races being in Dems favor isn't as great as one of these five going red. Dem earnestness, for once, matches Rep machine's - that includes a heightened black turn-out vs "voting irregularity" trends.
We've seen this rear its ugly head as Lieberman pulled into the open and confirm itself as TN's shift to Ford faded so quickly. The Rove hustings were hip to this all, too, and it's no wonder the Reps dumped an inordinate (for even these mid-terms) amount of money into Lieberman and were reading the riot act down in Tennessee over the attempt to brand the Democrats the 'Playboy Party'.
All ptolled, Dems take House, but have a 60%+ chance of missing the Senate by one race (only 30% chance by two seats), most likely a possible recount in favor of MO's Talent .. or VA's Allen finding some extra, hidden traction in his poppymacaca.
What a lovely two years of heightened partisan melodrama we have ahead of now; American foreign policy will be more schizophrenic than ever.
NEOlogism of the Day
So it's just as clear now that Bush's narcissistic version of a war on terror is predicated on two core tenets: mission creep and flip-flopping. We wouldn't doubt it's actually a premeditated strategy, considering previous canards like 'trickle-down's evolving into open starving of the beast and the August 2000 Republican Convention's Party of Inclusion and Compassion being shut down by the Staatspolizei's (...when in Rome?...) troika of unitary executive theory, signing statements, and pervasive stonewalling of executive review. Are those three the Axis of Awful - or is that just Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld? So naturally, as if by intelligent design almost, 'Stay the Course' is morphed into "Stay the Courts". And the heat is on from here. It's going to get hot and sticky, Bush will go to bunker: we fear and loathe the third branch's potential to distract from (and play battlefield for ) the first two branches' reinvigorated civil war.
-
Well, the heat's about to be on. Perle and others have finally given up the ghost (of Glibness Past) on Bush's competence, and the Liberal Dems are about to have their day. And W sees himself as Gary Cooper, all alone versus world, national, Congressional, Republican and even neocon opinion.
The only consolation is that the Dems, contrary to so much leftist hope and Kristol-clear despair, have no chance at controlling the Senate. Why so many analysts are acting like there's a chance is ...mysterious. ...suspicious? ...hasty? ...stupid? Some seem to overlook that an open race taken by Dems doesn't mean a Magic-6 pick-up. None seem to be factoring in the canonical ballot-position edge - call it 1.5-2.2% this go-round - that so many candidates and ward heelers suppurate over. Between the two, the Dems, who have to take literally every Senate seat reasonably available to them, are more statistically challenged than Mark Twain.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/
http://www.pollingreport.com/2006.htm
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign06/countdown.html
What gets in the way of recognizing all this is most likely the power of standard deviation. (No, we don't mean conservatives' sexual hypocrisy - that Haggard, lusty-negro-in-the-woodpile faux pas always erecting its ugly, oft-uncircumcised head as a Foley catheterization of our incestuous Republican organs.) The mathematical power and failure rate of psephology are pretty well known; what's often underestimated is our inability to recognize when we're too reliant on it.
From a schooled statististical vantage point, we fully agree average 6% Democratic edges in generic ballot polls for Rep/Dem Senate races have very good reasons to translate to the six-seat Dem pick-up (out of fourteen contestable races) so many analysts think is just so possible. Essentially, that 6% average edge across polls eclipses the margin of error (a 95% confidence interval of two standard deviations) nicely and a normal distribution ought yield the six seats. But with 9 of them consensually being considered decided now (late Monday afternoon) and the Dems' only gaining Santorum's PA and DeWine's OH seats, they've already blown it. MN, WA, MI, AZ, NJ, and TN largely confirmed now, too, only five races remain toss-ups - and the Dems must take all to gain Senate control. Yeah, there's a 7- 8% chance, we figure, they might do that - giving each remaining Dem a toss-up edge of 60-40 odds from here (.6 to the fifth power). But the Rep edge in ballot position will dent that further. Odds of a turn-around upset in the other 30 races being in Dems favor isn't as great as one of these five going red. Dem earnestness, for once, matches Rep machine's - that includes a heightened black turn-out vs "voting irregularity" trends.
We've seen this rear its ugly head as Lieberman pulled into the open and confirm itself as TN's shift to Ford faded so quickly. The Rove hustings were hip to this all, too, and it's no wonder the Reps dumped an inordinate (for even these mid-terms) amount of money into Lieberman and were reading the riot act down in Tennessee over the attempt to brand the Democrats the 'Playboy Party'.
All ptolled, Dems take House, but have a 60%+ chance of missing the Senate by one race (only 30% chance by two seats), most likely a possible recount in favor of MO's Talent .. or VA's Allen finding some extra, hidden traction in his poppymacaca.
What a lovely two years of heightened partisan melodrama we have ahead of now; American foreign policy will be more schizophrenic than ever.
NEOlogism of the Day
So it's just as clear now that Bush's narcissistic version of a war on terror is predicated on two core tenets: mission creep and flip-flopping. We wouldn't doubt it's actually a premeditated strategy, considering previous canards like 'trickle-down's evolving into open starving of the beast and the August 2000 Republican Convention's Party of Inclusion and Compassion being shut down by the Staatspolizei's (...when in Rome?...) troika of unitary executive theory, signing statements, and pervasive stonewalling of executive review. Are those three the Axis of Awful - or is that just Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld? So naturally, as if by intelligent design almost, 'Stay the Course' is morphed into "Stay the Courts". And the heat is on from here. It's going to get hot and sticky, Bush will go to bunker: we fear and loathe the third branch's potential to distract from (and play battlefield for ) the first two branches' reinvigorated civil war.
posted by hobogomil @ 8:55 AM
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